Risk-adjusted asset valuations, pipeline scenario modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation — built for the diligence and operating decisions that actually allocate capital.
Free for researchers and academics. Investors and tech-transfer offices: book a conversation.
264
Benchmark Combinations
11
Therapeutic Areas
8
Drug Modalities
3
Biomarker Strategies
What is PhaseFolio
PhaseFolio replaces 40-hour Excel rebuilds with a probability-of-success-aware engine that cites every assumption. Input your pipeline parameters; get a defensible rNPV in seconds.
Compute rNPV using evidence-based PoS benchmarks across 11 indications, 8 modalities, and 3 biomarker strategies. Sourced from BIO/QLS 2021 peer-reviewed data.
Fork assumptions, compare base vs. upside, adjust deal structures. Save unlimited scenarios and share password-protected reports with investors.
10,000-iteration stochastic simulation with correlated PoS and duration uncertainty. See the probability distribution of your asset value.
How it works
Select your indication, modality, and current development stage. PhaseFolio auto-populates evidence-based benchmarks.
Configure costs, durations, PoS overrides, revenue ramp, WACC, and deal terms. Every parameter is adjustable.
Get deterministic rNPV instantly. Toggle Monte Carlo for a 10,000-iteration probability distribution.
Export investor-grade PDFs, fork scenarios for side-by-side comparison, share password-protected reports.
Built for biotech
3D PoS Benchmark Matrix
11 indications, 8 modalities, biomarker-stratified
Sensitivity Playground
Interactive tornado chart — drag sliders, see rNPV change live
Epidemiology Builder
Estimate peak revenue from patient population data
Geographic Segmentation
Model multi-market launches with region-specific multipliers
Deal Structure Modeling
Licensing, co-development, profit splits, milestone-based deals
Investor-Grade PDF Export
One-click reports with methodology, references, and data tables
Password-Protected Sharing
Share results with investors — no account required to view
Excel Export
Full data workbook with waterfall, Monte Carlo, sensitivity tabs
Every benchmark is traceable to a published study. Every assumption is a footnote.
Baseline rates from BIO/QLS 2021 (N=12,728 transitions), Sun et al. 2025 (Nature Communications), and 7 peer-reviewed multiplier studies.
PoS rates sourced from BIO/QLS 2021 (N=12,728 phase transitions) and cross-referenced with 7 peer-reviewed studies.
Multiplier-adjusted PoS rates per indication, modality, and biomarker strategy. Full source citations on every number.
Read the methodology →Full methodology, worked examples, and source citations available in the methodology paper.
Who Is This For
Free Research access for the people learning the workflow. Diligence-grade workspace for the people committing capital.
Research Tier
Free forever via Research Tier. Full back-test, methodology, public benchmarks, and a single project to learn the workflow.
Diligence Workspace
Signed dossier exports, evidence register, asset-anchored landscape, founder-led support, and multi-asset workflow for real diligence.
Book a ConversationResearch Tier
PhaseFolio’s Research Tier is free for verified academic institutions and 501(c)(3) nonprofits using the platform for teaching, research, or grant-funded analysis. Currently available to the Johns Hopkins community.
JHU sign-ups: @jhu.edu · @jh.edu · @jhmi.edu · @jhsph.edu
Other research institutions interested? Get in touch
PhaseFolio is in active beta. Every commit lands on production within minutes, every export carries a signed hash, every methodology page versions itself. Tell us what to build next.
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