How PhaseFolio Works
Audit-grade biotech investment analysis. Every assumption sourced; every multiplier calibrated; every output verifiable. Each section below is a standalone, citable document at a stable URL — designed to be referenced by IC memos, academic papers, and AI agents performing first-pass diligence.
- 01
Backtest Methodology
AUC, Wilson confidence intervals, calibration, and the rheumatoid-arthritis cohort.
How we validate probability-of-success predictions against historical outcomes. AUC discrimination, Wilson score intervals on accuracy, calibration plots, and what the 16-drug cohort can and cannot tell you.
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- 02
Probability of Success Calibration
Sources behind the indication × modality × biomarker matrix and the multipliers.
The three-dimensional benchmark matrix derived from BIO/QLS 2021 (N = 12,728+ stage transitions), modality-specific Citeline 2024 adjustments, and the seven evidence-based multipliers applied through the log-odds path.
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- 03
IRA Terminal-Value Framework
Year 9 / Year 13 cliff modeling under the Inflation Reduction Act.
How the engine accounts for Medicare Drug Price Negotiation. The Year 9 small-molecule cliff, the Year 13 biologic cliff, MFP discount mechanics, and what the closed-form sensitivity slider is fitting.
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- 04
Evidence Standards
What counts as a citation, freshness rules, and the audit chain.
The Evidence Register schema, accepted source tiers, citation freshness decay, and how the substrate links each numeric assumption to the source that supports it.
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- 05
Network Benchmarks
Q4 2026 anonymized data publication — methodology preview.
A public commitment device. The first annual anonymized benchmark dump ships Q4 2026; the methodology, anonymization approach, cohort cuts, and citation format are visible now.
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Use PhaseFolio From Your Agent
PhaseFolio exposes a Model Context Protocol server. Any MCP-compatible client — Claude, Codex, Cursor, your own agent — can call the same engine, methodology, and signed dossier exports your human analyst uses. Three public tools (query_benchmarks, verify_export, get_methodology) require no auth.
Claude Code
HTTP-native, one CLI command
claude mcp add --scope user --transport http phasefolio https://app.phasefolio.com/api/mcpCodex CLI
OpenAI Codex; HTTP-native
codex mcp add phasefolio --http https://app.phasefolio.com/api/mcpClaude Desktop / Cursor
Stdio bridge via the npm wrapper
npx -y @phasefolio/mcpAdd to claude_desktop_config.json (or your client’s MCP config) under mcpServers.phasefolio with command "npx" and args ["-y", "@phasefolio/mcp"].
Six additional org-scoped tools (get_project, get_scenario, get_evidence, get_dossier, query_landscape, list_scenarios) unlock with a bearer token. Contact us for access. Server discovery at /.well-known/mcp.json.
What this methodology is for
PhaseFolio is decision-support for portfolio triage, asset stress-testing, and term-sheet negotiation by investors, founders, and licensing analysts. It is not calibrated for IFRS-13 / US-GAAP fair-value reporting, Section 409A valuations, fairness opinions, or litigation-grade damages calculations. For those uses, treat any output as a working model that a qualified valuation professional must independently challenge and recalibrate.
Material limitations the user should know. Several PoS modifiers (genetic validation 2.6×, biomarker, orphan, CAR-T, gene therapy) are reported in the source literature as relative success ratios but applied here through the odds-ratio (logit) path — a deliberately conservative approximation. Per-cell sample sizes and confidence intervals are not yet surfaced in the UI. Sensitivity analysis is one-at-a-time (tornado), not global. Validation evidence to date: a 16-drug rheumatoid-arthritis backtest at AUC 0.625, with NSCLC in progress.
An expanded version of this model card — including the per-modifier estimand table, full validation evidence, and update cadence — is available on request. Contact contact@phasefolio.com.
PhaseFolio
© 2026 PhaseFolio. All rights reserved.
This document set describes the computational methodology used by PhaseFolio. It is provided for transparency and does not constitute financial or medical advice. All benchmark data derive from published, peer-reviewed sources cited in each section.